I Had No Idea!

I've heard for years about the declining rate of workforce participation. In other words, how many able bodied men and women are out of the workforce and not seeking a job.

This chart appeared in Bloomberg News and portrays the percent of able bodied men who are in the workforce.

1948 would be my father's early working years. Ninety-Eight percent of men were working then. Less than 90 percent are now.

A declining participation rate means lower than potential productivity which means lower than potential wealth in the country. Or, so I think.

You Say You Want a Revolution?

Luke Muehlhauser is new to me but I'll have to check out his website more often. Follow this link and you'll see his excellent commentary on the effect of the Industrial Revolution on human prosperity.

You'll need to click on the graphic to see the rather small details here but this is the part I find most interesting, although it sounds macabre: The death rates per capita of major events in world history.

   An Lushan Rebellion                       5.6% of world population

   Genghis Kahn                                  9.5% of world population

   Black Death                                     9.7% of world population

   Worlds Wars + Spanish Flu             7%    of world population

I have to let that last one sink in for a moment. Both world wars plus the Spanish Flu epidemic (which killed a distant relative of mine) were less deadly than the Black Death and Genghis Kkan (as a percent of the population).

Transportation or Suicide?

I've been saying this for years and it's satisfying to see the technical world come around to my interpretation.

Is the transporter in Star Trek a suicide machine? If my molecules are disassembled, sent substantial distances, then reassembled then I have, in fact, died and been reborn. Or to think of it another way, I have died and a copy of me has been created.

Taking my body apart, atom-by-atom, is the definition of death. The transporter operator of a star ship has been killing people for a living.

I first came across this idea in an obscure science fiction story in the 60s, the name of which I've long ago forgotten. In the story, we send unmanned space craft to distant planets where they automatically build transporter receiver units. Once assembled, we begin transporting people and construction materials on the target planet.

It's a great idea only ... wait for it ... the people have to be willing to die and an echo of her or him is created on the distant world. That was the drama of that particular story.

I've proposed this dilemma to my family from time-to-time and the response is, "Shut up Dad. It's just a story."

October 20, 2017. Be there or be square.




Stalin's only weakness as the most evil dictator in history is that he had to complete with Hitler and Mao.

It's a Hairball!

CIO Magazine has an interesting take on IT operations that devolve into bottlenecks. Read the entire article: it's quick and interesting. It uses the snarky description of Hairball to discuss an uncontrolled development environment that evolves over time. (I think I'll steal that one.)

The article has one point with which I would quibble, the use of IT steering committees that become roadblocks instead of gates through which things move quickly. It says steering committees inherently become bureacratic tools for infighting. Maybe. A poorly organized one does. I've been a part of two that worked very, very well because they had a good charter, good participants, and good executive oversight. 

But, like I said, I quibble.

Capitalism! Is there nothing it can't do?

It looks like in the very near future, commercial space launches will be viable and SpaceX will be the leader.

The future: be there or be square!

Now They Tell Me!

This clip is from the Drudge Report at 2:32 p.m. EDT on Aug 22, 1917. The link is to an article that doesn't show well or else I would have linked to it directly. Here it is if you want to take a look. https://www.spectator.com.au/2017/08/big-data-finds-the-medieval-warm-period-no-denial-here/

My point? Well, if you look through my driveling over the years you'll see several references to the Medieval Warm Period as a counterbalance to argument that we're in the hottest times ever. 

And now, the popular press may be catching on. I'm curious to see how quickly and how far this spreads.

Ah, heck! Just Keep Rubbing It In, Already!

You may be getting tired of hearing it but the U.S. shale oil industry just keeps playing the hits. They get more efficient and economical over time. In the last five years they've become the swing player in global oil prices and soon they'll be the dominant player.

This chart compares U.S. oil fields and their productivity and the article at this link goes into more detail about how we soon will be the driver of world oil pricing. Our ability to bring production on-line and take it off-line quickly as demand waxes and wanes will be the key.

I don't know about you but I feel like hugging a fracker.

Danger Will Robinson!

(If you get the reference, congratulations. You're AARP card is in the mail.)

There is, indeed, danger in using these 12 practices in managing your IT operation, which you'll see if you follow the link. (If you don't have an IT operation, then maybe they'll apply to something else you do in the business world.)

I've been in IT for 35 years and most of these warnings hold true in my experience. Let me take just one as an example and you can read the article for the rest.

I first heard this in the 1980s (Yes! the 80s) and I doubted it then. My professional colleagues are my colleagues and we work together for a common purpose: to serve our real, paying, customers. The CIO article has a pretty good take on why this is a bad idea and I urge you to read it and see if you agree with this and the eleven other practices that are (to put it kindly) counter productive.

If You Want It, Here It Is, Come and Get It!

The title's from a Badfinger song, if you want to hum along. Yesterday I found a link with an enormous (and I do mean enormous) amount of graphic evidence of temperature changes going back centuries.

This clip shows the Medieval Warm Period, which I've shown previously. If you follow the link at NoTricksZone you'll find more charts that you can drink. I'll come back and repost on them when I've had a chance to absorb them.

Ding Dong the OPEC is Dead!

Well, maybe ... probably. In the 70s, OPEC was the big bad wolf or the bogeyman under the bed.

Check out this article on the demise of the cartel and (I hope) come one step closer to my belief in the power of free people and free markets.

The End of OPEC is Near!

If this is true then I am delighted. I wish there were a word in English like schadenfreude.

Since at least World War I, the West has been fighting wars in the Middle East for oil.

As an afterthought, OPEC is a cartel that exists from the governmental control of the assets in question. The governments of the West (particularly the United States, if you're old enough to remember the 70s) have been complicate. It appears the game is almost up.

A free market that is set free will easily dismantle a cartel. Fracking is said market.

Why OPEC is finished

What will happen to the Middle East now that they no longer have the whip hand with oil?

Fracking technology (and a more-or-less free market) means any decrease in OPEC production means a cost cycle that will drive more US production. There's more here at the PowerLine blog.

Record Exports!

This is what happens when you let the free market do its work. Follow this link to see that the United States is now setting records for the export of oil. Not the import; the export.

If you're old enough to remember the 70s (and, unfortunately, I am) you may remember when exporting oil was made illegal. In 2015 exporting was legalized when no one outside the industry as paying attention. Now we produce so much we can export it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If you want to prevent wars in the Mideast, then make the value of oil lower and lower and lower. Drill baby drill.

How Boring Can One Guy Be?

I'm about to answer my own question: pretty boring and I'm the proof. This post is not about Donald Trump but it is about an action he recently took.

By now you're aware of the Carrier incident when Trump intervened in a planned plant movement from Indiana to Mexico. I won't add much to that because you'll have your own opinion.

One thing I do want to say though is that I'll be keeping an eye on this. If you've read any of my posts you know I'm a free market guy, through and through. Trump performed a direct intersession into the market. Is this good or bad? I don't know yet. Though I'm sure the new president will be giving us many such moments in the future.

Stand by for fun!