Friday, December 21, 2012

Crowding Out and Other Things

I still, for the life of me, don't understand why the term "crowding out" hasn't returned to popularity. In the 1970s it was a very popular term which meant that the U.S. government's use of debt was crowding private economic players out of the market.

This chart comes from a fabulous collection of charts at Business Insider - 50 Important Charts. They cover a lot of topics but they make for a very useful snapshot of our world at the moment.

In the one I've included directly, what you see is the result of increased debt financing of the government. Above a certain level of public debt, each additional borrowed dollar produces less and less output. Or to put it another way, so much money goes to servicing the debt that less and less true investment takes place. Or to put it another way, when the government is hoovering up all the national debt capacity, then more efficient and productive private players are crowded out ... and so productivity declines.

A sad tale but true.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

A Balance Sheet Recession - Connecting the Dots

Ignore the political storms of the moment. The best financial description I've heard of our current economic malaise is calling it a "balance sheet recession". Or to put it another way, all the private players in the American economy (and a lot of the rest of the world) were over-leveraged going into 2007. And now all the private players are de-leveraging (or reducing debt).

I remember predicting to a friend in early 2008 that it would be 2012 before we started to climb out and 2017 before we are back to the historic norms. Unfortunately, my prediction seems to be close enough.

Take a look at this article in Pragmatic Capitalism by Jan Hatzius where he goes into the details. In the long run, the news is good. In the short run, there's more pain ahead and more political shenanigans by our ruling class can be expected.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

I, Pencil

I picked this up through a post by blogger, Bob Krumm at bobkrumm.com. (Warning, he blogs on political issues so if you don't want to read about politics, avoid the link.) His pithy comment is "Conceivably millions of people have a hand in the making of a pencil. And yet, without any central control whatsoever, somehow, that old reliable #2 is always available wherever I choose to shop."

In a manner similar to Adam Smith's classic take-apart of the production of matches, I, Pencil is a great rendition of how the invisible hand works in economics. The "I, Pencil" article is here.

Friday, August 10, 2012

The After Party

Here's a follow-up to my most recent post about housing prices. These two charts come from jparsons.net if you want a closer look.


This first chart shows that housing prices are approaching their historic averages but are not quite yet there. Keeping in mind that an average is made of both above-and-below average numbers, I expect prices to fall slightly below the average before beginning to recover. Let's see if this guess holds up: prices will stabilize (or stop declining rapidly, I should say) in 2012, stay flat in 2013, and start a slow, slow recovery in 2014.


This chart is more interesting to me. The blue line is housing prices and the purple line is equivalent rentals. The numbers will, historically, be close (each individual makes a purchase decision based on the cost of an equivalent rental home). I didn't know how much they'd separated in the housing bubble of the aughts.

Two years ago I was a die-hard renter. Then when I noticed that local rental prices were substantially higher than mortgage payments for an equivalent home ... well, back into the pool I jumped.

Defending Capitalism

Cullen Roche of the Pragmatic Capitalism blog has a nice post defending capitalism. If I weren't a libertarian, I would say everyone should be forced to read Smith's The Wealth of Nations to understand the superior moral underpinnings of capitalism as compared to any other system yet seen. (Since I am a small-l libertarian then I must say that I encourage students to study Smith.)

But I digress ... check out Roche's post which is well worth the read.

Oh, and as an aside ... there has been a tendency in the last few decades for defenders of capitalism to refer to it as "free markets". I think these well-intentioned folks think capitalism is a dirty word and so need to hide behind another term. I say we should defend the term itself as Capitalism (Big-C) has proven itself to provide more freedom and prosperity to each and every man, woman, and child than any other system ever. Trumpet that from the rooftops Cullen!

Monday, July 30, 2012

Cronyism - The Evidence

Cronyism or Mercantilism? I prefer the second, historic, term but either way it is an accurate representation of much of our political and economic world. It appears to be the natural condition of the unfettered government to create these conditions. I'll get back to the study in this link on the The Economics and History of Cronyism when I have more time to absorb it. It promises to be a enlightening read.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Awash in a Sea of Oil

I just tried to come up with a list of benefits that will redound to the U S of A because of this but the list is too long to make a coherent post. (As if my posts are usually coherent.)


Ladies and Gents, it is official that the United States is awash in a sea of oil. In fact, we have more recoverable oil than even Saudi Arabia. Forget the snark about "Hydrocarbon Deniers" and read the article at the link. You may find it eye opening.



Repetitively Repeating ... but Worth It

“To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our selection between economy and liberty or profusion and servitude.

If we run into such debts as that, we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are.

Our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.

Our land-holders, too, like theirs, retaining, indeed, the title and stewardship of estates called theirs, but held really in trust for the treasury, must wander, like theirs, in foreign countries, and be contented with penury, obscurity, exile, and the glory of the nation.

This example reads to us the salutary lesson that private fortunes are destroyed by public, as well as by private extravagance. And this is the tendency of all human governments.

A departure from principle in one instance, becomes a precedent for a second, that second for a third, and so on, till the bulk of society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery, to have no sensibilities left but for sinning and suffering.

Then begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia, which some philosophers, observing to be so general in the world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man.

And the forehorse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.”

– Thomas Jefferson

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Greed is Good: Or at least Greed is Greed

Someone using the nom de plume The Ugly Truth at the financial website Seeking Alpha has published an interesting article on Apple's stock price performance and whether or not Apple's stock is, in fact, in a bubble.


Which brings me to the psychological point about financial bubbles. The Ugly Truth republishes a chart I've seen before, which is a great representation of the way people react to perceived, easily available money: Greed!


When your barber is talking about trading options on Apple stock, it's time to get out of Apple. When your neighbors are creating trading pools to form investment clubs, it's time to get out of the market. When the guy pitching internet web development to your boss (in 1999) says "this time it's different", then do not walk but run away.



Friday, April 20, 2012

Party Like It's 1999!

Housing prices have now returned to the inflation-adjusted levels of 1999. This chart from the American Enterprise Institute is particularly interesting regarding just how high prices got in the housing bubble. I'm curious, though, and I'd like to find information going further back in the past. The chart clearly shows that housing prices were even lower prior to 1999. Hmm ... just what is the historic average? I'll have to take a look.



Woke Terror

I recently heard a new phrase that stuck in my head like a dart in a dart board - Woke Terror . In our world a formerly innocent remark...