Thursday, December 29, 2011

Six Energy Myths

There's a very interesting article at the always interesting site, Pragmatic Capital, run by Cullen Roche. It talks about some energy myths that are part of the conventional wisdom. Follow this link for more detail. Here are the highlights.

  • US crude oil comes from the Middle East/Persian Gulf.
It doesn't; at least not most of it. As I commented on before, Canada is our largest foreign supplier of oil with Mexico at number two.
  • The US domestic energy production continues to dwindle.
It was but it's not dwindling now. Production is ramping up and quickly with the oil shale finds in the Bakken (North Dakota) and Marsellus (Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York) fields. I've seen predictions that we'll be the largest producer of oil in the world before 2020.
  • If the US produced more of its energy requirements, the price at the pump would be lower.
This is wrong on its face. As a commodity traded in a world-wide market, the price of oil is based on world markets. The recent tussle over the Keystone pipeline is a good example of this irony. Proponents of Keystone often claim that we'll get cheaper oil if we ship it from a direct neighbor like Canada. Perhaps, but shortening the supply line won't make a difference you'll feel at the pump. What will make the difference is encouraging Canada to pump and sell all they can get their hands on. 
  • US energy needs are constantly growing.
Also not true: at least not as a percentage of GDP. The linked article has more detail.
  • The US is not an energy exporter because it has no excess energy to export.
True at the macro level, but misleading. Starting this year we are a net exporter of refined products like gasoline and jet fuel. We make it more cost efficiently than others so they buy it from us.
  • World’s oil production has already peaked and as the reserves dwindle, more wars will be fought over the scarce energy resources.
Absolutely not true but I'll leave it to the article's author to explain it.
 Enjoy the read. And, by the way, Happy New Year 2012!

Friday, December 23, 2011

Orwell and Havel

I am a huge fan of George Orwell. My favorite book of his is Homage to Catalonia which is his memoir of his participation in the Spanish Civil War. It seems that the recently departed Vaclav Havel (leader of and the best thing to come out of the post-Communist Czechoslovakia) is also a big fan of George. Orwell wrote of the potentiality of totalitarianism. Havel lived in it. Today, I picked up this quote from Havel, which could have come straight from Orwell.

The post-totalitarian system touches people at every step, but it does so with its ideological gloves on. This is why life in the system is so thoroughly permeated with hypocrisy and lies: government by bureaucracy is called popular government; the working class is enslaved in the name of the working class; the complete degradation of the individual is presented as his ultimate liberation; depriving people of information is called making it available; the use of power to manipulate is called the public control of power, and the arbitrary abuse of power is called observing the legal code; the repression of culture is called its development; the expansion of imperial influence is presented as support for the oppressed; the lack of free expression becomes the highest form of freedom; farcical elections become the highest form of democracy; banning independent thought becomes the most scientific of world views; military occupation becomes fraternal assistance. Because the regime is captive to its own lies, it must falsify everything. It falsifies the past. It falsifies the present, and it falsifies the future. It falsifies statistics. It pretends not to possess an omnipotent and unprincipled police apparatus. It pretends to respect human rights. It pretends to persecute no one. It pretends to fear nothing. It pretends to pretend nothing.
 Ladies and gents: This is as good an example of clear thinking as you'll ever see.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

A Maze of Keystones

The Keystone pipeline project is under considerable and strenuous debate in the United States today. You can find much more interesting commentary on it than you'll get from me. But here is a very interesting graphic.


In a recent CNBC appearance, the famous (or infamous) oil man T. Boone Pickens made the comment that there are five pipelines running through his own ranch in Texas. Pipelines are a long-running fact of life. One more won't hurt. 



Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Another Ugly Truth

The United States has vast (and I mean vast) energy reserves in coal, gas, and (yes) oil. We are now a net exporter of refined oil products. By 2017, we may be an exporter of oil (if we let development happen). Now, it's becoming undeniable that we have enormous amounts of energy waiting to be used for the prosperity of my children and grandchildren. Check out the details at this link.



Monday, November 7, 2011

It's Cool Man, Cool!

In the last ten years, temperatures in the contiguous United States have been declining. Hmm ... it was just a few weeks ago that I remember hearing somewhere that the summer of 2011 was the hottest on record. I wonder what the sample period was, 2010-2011?

Read this article for some fun facts. 

 

Thursday, November 3, 2011

I'm Inept and I'm Here to Help

Here's the meme of the day.

Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where those least capable to lead are elected by those least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves, or to succeed at anything, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of an ever-diminishing number of producers.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

This Has Absolutely Nothing To Do With Anything

I read somewhere that a great way to get readers to a blog is to post pictures of pretty women. So, here you go. Monica Bellucci may be the easiest-on-the-eyes woman out there. (Next to my own wife, of course.) Enjoy.

The Government Put

What, another Cullen Roche post? Well, when the guy is on, he's on.

The Global Government Put is a short and telling comment on investing in the modern era. "The global government put has come to dominate every twist and turn in the markets.  There is no buy and hold.  There is no value investing.  There is only one big roller coaster of volatility based on the decisions of clueless politicians..."

The good news (to me anyway) is the knowledge that while history doesn't repeat, it does often rhyme. The 70s were a particularly ugly time for investing for a lot of the same reasons we see today. And yet ... yet ... there was a brighter future that began even before Ronald Reagan's inauguration. The wave of deregulation and sound money actually began at the end of the Carter administration.

I doubt seriously that Obama will undertake a turn to rationality like Carter did but it's very likely that the next post-Obama administration will.

I am ever the optimist. 

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Good News, Bad News

Cullen Roche always seems to have interesting things to say but it takes some background in monetary theory to stay with his arguments. He has an interesting piece today regarding what he calls a Balance Sheet Recession (BSR) and how this is the economic malaise we're currently experiencing.

"The truth is, we’re in a balance sheet recession and as the government slowly peels away the spending that has propped up the U.S. economy, the consumer will prove weak once again.  So, the bad news is we’re still in for a muddle through period.  The good news is the deficit will remain large enough to avoid substantial economic contraction."

I don't agree with him regarding a need for government spending and he's not a Keynesian but he is quite right about a few things. 

Before the Great Recession started, in late 2007, I was chatting with a stock broker friend about the recession we both knew would be fast upon us.  I predicted then that the pending malaise would last until 2017 and I still hold to that. It will take the households that long to bring their debt down to historic levels. 

Check out Roche's article and, in particular, his graph on the historic trends of household debt.

And, yes, this may sound dry-as-dust but it's still worth a few minutes of your time.

Higher Education Bubble - Part Cuarenta

If you or a loved one is considering taking out student loans, I encourage you to think again.

Higher Education Bubble
From: The Best Colleges

Sunday, August 7, 2011

The Markets Always Win

The hubris of our political class has astounded me for years. They have long believed that their perversion of Keynesian economics is the correct way to manage a modern economy. (Keynes was brilliant and, although I disagree with his conclusions, he was right in his own way.)

Margaret Thatcher had a great quip that the problem with Socialism is that "sooner or later you run out of other peoples money". For the United States, that time may have finally arrived.


My hope is that our political class finally takes this kick in the head as an opportunity to finally address a situation that has been building my entire life (and I'm no spring chicken). 


One lesson they need to learn is that the markets always have the last judgment on government finances. The markets always win; always.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Sheik Yerbouti

Sorry, but the title is an album by Frank Zappa in 1978 but it is relevant to my point. So, you think the United States imports most of its oil from hostile, Arab nations? Think again; it's our friendly neighbors to the north and south: Canada and Mexico.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

They Are Prisoners of Our Currency

Major trading blocs like China and Europe wish (wish) they could trade in something other than dollars. They can't, and here's why:

In recent noise about the financial world, much has been made of the relative weakness of the U.S. dollar. A lot of seemingly knowledgeable commentators like to predict that international investors either are already or will soon start to run away from the dollar into some other (not yet existing) international monetary unit.



This graph shows one reason why a move away from the dollar is almost impossible unless we're talking in decades instead of years.

Here's the original link at the Atlantic if you want more detail. One quick takeaway is that the metropolitan New York area has an economy larger than that of Canada. The Los Angeles area economy is almost as large as that of the Netherlands.

When American cities have economies as large as major nations this means that the dollar cannot be replaced as an international monetary exchange in the near term. The entire world simply cannot replace the dollar with Swiss Francs when Chicago, all by itself, is bigger than Switzerland. It's a question of liquidity.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Crony Capitalism

As if I needed more persuasion ... here's a graph that shows Crony Capitalism (more correctly called Mercantalism)is still in full swing in this country.

An Interesting and Stubborn Fact

Facts are stubborn things. With the recent rise in gasoline prices, it will be the natural tendency of the political class to blame oil companies and seek to demonize them in the public eye. (And based on my conversations on the topic with fellow citizens, they are easy to demonize.)

However ... I ran across this very interesting chart. If you believe that he who controls oil production also influences the price of oil then check out this chart. Who profits the most of increased oil prices? Well, it would appear that the top 13 producers of oil are, in fact, governments and these governments produce 94 percent of the world's oil.

Gone Baby Gone

Okay, I just sold my house in Kansas City and took a six percent loss from the purchase price two years ago. From what I can tell, I got off easy. It appears that prices still need to fall further to get back to their historic trend lines (reversion to the mean). It seems to me to be inevitable.

Those who know me know that I'm an optimistic type of fellow. (In fact, most of my personal money is in the market in long positions.) However, real estate seems like a good place to stay away from for a while.











Saturday, March 26, 2011

Ouch! If You Own a Home

I've just sold my house in Kansas City and I had to take a small loss. (I've owned five homes and this is the first one where I didn't make at least a small amount.) Others have asked me how the real estate market is in Kansas City. Generally, the economy there is pretty good. A couple of years ago (when I bought) the prices were holding up well. Now, they're following the national trend downward.

New home prices are holding up well but recent numbers show the volume of new home construction has almost collapsed. From this I conclude that those who are still building new homes are affluent and price is less of a factor in the purchase decision.

So okay - lesson learned.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Mostly for My Own Benefit

I've long heard of the Medieval Warm Period. The best evidence is the existence of Viking colonies on Greenland, which was, in fact, green when Eric the Red started the settlements. I've been there myself (a long, long time ago) and have seen some ruins of Viking homes.

If you're a believer in man made global warming, then this chart might cause you to pause. You can find many example of it by googling "medieval warm period" and look for images.

The Medieval Warm Period was much warmer than today; although, admittedly, we are warmer now than in recent years. Check out the blue area below the x-axis: that's the Little Ice Age. Remember the pictures of Washington crossing the Delaware through ice flows? The planet warms and cools all by itself, with and without our help.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Thomas Jefferson on Public Debt

“To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our selection between economy and liberty or profusion and servitude.

If we run into such debts as that, we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are.

Our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes, have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.

Our land-holders, too, like theirs, retaining, indeed, the title and stewardship of estates called theirs, but held really in trust for the treasury, must wander, like theirs, in foreign countries, and be contented with penury, obscurity, exile, and the glory of the nation.

This example reads to us the salutary lesson that private fortunes are destroyed by public, as well as by private extravagance. And this is the tendency of all human governments.

A departure from principle in one instance, becomes a precedent for a second, that second for a third, and so on, till the bulk of society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery, to have no sensibilities left but for sinning and suffering.

Then begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia, which some philosophers, observing to be so general in the world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man.

And the forehorse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.”

– Thomas Jefferson

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Counter-factuals

I love a good counter-factual: and in this case I mean data that pricks a hole in the balloon of modern liberalism. I just ran across an excerpt from a book called "Why Capitalism is Good for the Soul" by Peter Saunders.

"The way this [capitalism] has enhanced people’s capacity to lead a good life can be seen in the spectacular reduction in levels of global poverty, brought about by the spread of capitalism on a world scale. In 1820, 85% of the world’s population lived on today’s equivalent of less than a dollar per day. By 1950, this proportion had fallen to 50%. Today it is down to 20%.... In 1900, the average life expectancy in the “less developed countries” was just thirty years. By 1960, this had risen to forty-six years. By 1998, it was 65 years. To put this extraordinary achievement into perspective, the average life expectancy in the poorest countries at the end of the twentieth century was fifteen years longer than the average life expectancy in the richest country in the world—Britain—at the start of the century."

Name for me the political or economic system that can compete with Capitalism for simple human betterment. (And I do not mean the Crony Capitalism - or Corporatism as we exercise it today.) Even hobbled by politics, free markets have enough residual energy to raise up an entire planet's prosperity. Oh, what we could do with truly free markets. (Dream on, boy.)

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Not a Big Fan of Bill - Until Now

Bill Gross, the head of a super-player in the bond markets PIMCO, has written an excellent piece he calls "The Devil's Bargain" that defenestrates almost the entire world for complicity, duplicity, and mendacity in the financial meltdown of 2008 and the world since then. It's well worth the read.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The Moral Question

The distribution of taxes paid by US income groups is not a secret and is available to anyone curious enough to look for it.

For my reader (singular intended) who thinks that the mythical rich don't pay enough taxes, it's important to understand that you're making a moral argument, not an economic one. You're saying that by the simple fact of having more money than you do, a rich woman owes a higher percent of her income to the general weal.

I try to stay away from statements of morality when talking economics but let me turn the moral question around. What moral right gives a poor or, more importantly, middle class person the right to take the property of the wealthy woman? By definition, money is a store of value and nothing more. Her couch is a store of value, her car is a store of value, her house is a store of value. Can you take the couch from her living room? Can you take the car from her driveway? By what moral right do we insist that she pay a larger percent of her income that we do?

Maybe the question answers itself but then again, maybe not.

Monday, January 31, 2011

What's the Real Value?

Here's a very interesting look at inflation-adjusted housing prices since 1970. I infer from this that the value crash from 2006 onward has a ways to go yet. (We'll need to get below the moving average price before we can climb back about it.) As a homeowner with a house for sale, this is not great news. However, reality is reality.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

I Knew I was Right

A widely held public conception is that America's manufacturing industries are in decline and have been for decades. I have always believed this to be incorrect and here's the evidence. In fact, US manufacturing has doubled in real dollars since 1975.

What's happening is that manufacturing is becoming significantly more productive over time and it is declining as a percentage of the total US economy.

My hat's off to all of us who work in manufacturing. We're doing a damn good job, if I say so myself.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

I Could Not Have Said It Better

My wife and I sent both of our daughters to good universities from our own money. At one time, one of my daughters was (very briefly) considering taking out a student loan. She was trying to be noble and lighten the load on her parents. I quickly convinced her that a loan was a bad idea: here's why.

If a private organization managed loans the way the government does, the private loaner would be in prison.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Ever Wonder?

If you follow economic news at all, you may know that California has the eighth largest economy in the world. The Economist has published a great chart showing how each US state compares with nations around the world.


(My apologies that I'm unable to embed an image. The view of the chart itself is pretty good.)

Woke Terror

I recently heard a new phrase that stuck in my head like a dart in a dart board - Woke Terror . In our world a formerly innocent remark...