Tuesday, June 18, 2013

How Much Do They Know? Really ...

Apparently not much.

I've never studied economic projections but like I suspect most people do, I have a healthy suspicion of them. One of my favorite expressions is, "You can lay all the economists in the world end-to-end and never reach a conclusion."

Here's an example.

 It's the projection of American unemployment (from the Council on Foreign Relations?) from November 2012 through April 2013. Now, it's been a long while since I studied statistics but I think I can safely conclude that they don't have any more of an idea than you or I.

 Tell you what; I'll take a while stab at it like they're doing and I'll charge half as much. Deal?
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